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Australia & Pacific
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
How do you believe that the Trump presidency will influence elections in Europe?
Well, of course we don't know. But what we've seen during the last week with important elections in Canada and Australia, not Europe, but fairly similar in other ways, is that the Trump factor has been very important. It has boosted the incumbent governments. It has boosted the center-left. It has boosted those who are seen as standing up to American pressure, and thus produced results both in Canada, primarily in Canada, but also in Australia. Very different from what practically everyone expected a couple of months ago.
Europe, different place. But still we have two important elections coming up, within slightly more than 10 days. We have the first round of the presidential election in Poland. That's very important for the future possibilities of the Tusk government to continue reforming that particular country. And we have the second round of the presidential election in Romania. An important country often forgotten. But there of course, we had gross interference from Russia and TikTok, and a candidate was banned. In both of these cases, we see the Trump presidency acting. They received, in the White House the other day, the opposition candidate. The extreme right nationalist opposition candidate the other day. And they've been making distinct noises in favor of the same political alternative in Romania. Will this backfire in the way it did in Canada, Australia? Remains to be seen. Very important elections both of them. Watch this space.
Crowds gather outside Buckingham Palace to watch a fly-past by the Red Arrows on the 80th anniversary of VE Day in London, United Kingdom, on May 05, 2025.
1,300: On Monday, the United Kingdom started celebrating the 80th anniversary of VE Day, which commemorates the Allied victory of World War II, with a slew of street and tea parties across the country. There was also a 1,300-strong military procession along the Mall, the stretch of road connecting Buckingham Palace and Trafalgar Square. One million people flooded the area on the original VE Day, May 8, 1945.
13 billion: Donald Trump’s tariff bonanza induced a huge amount of stock market volatility, and the largest European investment banks are pleased as punch. This week, UBS, BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Barclays, and Deutsche Bank posted their largest quarterly revenues in over a decade, reporting a combined €13 billion ($14.7 billion) from equities and fixed income in the first quarter of the year. The stellar performance mirrors the hefty revenues that their American counterparts gathered in the first three months of 2025.
$60 million: Maybe there’s no escape from Alcatraz: Donald Trump wants to reopen the island prison, which was shut in 1963. “The reopening of ALCATRAZ will serve as a symbol of Law, Order, and JUSTICE,” the president wrote on social media. The prison, which sits just over a mile off the coast in the San Francisco Bay, once housed the notorious mobster Al Capone. It is currently operated by the National Park Service, which hosts 1.6 million visitors a year, generating roughly $60 million in revenue.
$75,000: New York City hosted the Met Gala on Monday night. Individiual tickets sold for a cool $75,000, with the money raised going to the Museum’s Costume Institute. Some have used the gala to spread political messages, like when Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) wore a dress with the message, “Tax the Rich,” to the 2021 iteration.
540 million: The governments of Australia and New Zealand vowed to protect their film industries after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on foreign films. The Oceanic pair have become a popular filming spot for Hollywood filmmakers, in part thanks to lower costs and government tax incentives. Australia alone has spent AU$540 million ($349.4 million) since 2019 to attract international film productions.
U.S. President Donald Trump salutes as he attends the annual White House Easter Egg Roll, in Washington, D.C., U.S., on April 21, 2025.
30,000: Rising egg prices don’t seem to have hit the White House, as nearly 30,000 real eggs adorned the White House lawn Monday morning for the 147th annual Easter egg roll. Donald Trump paid tribute to Pope Francis, defended embattled US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and shared photos with the Easter bunny.
1: Hey ChatGPT, can you propose some new legislation for the United Arab Emirates? Yes, the Emirati nation plans to become the first country to harness the power of artificial intelligence to propose new legislation.
875: Out of the roughly 1,000 National Institute for Occupational Safety and Healthjobs, the Trump administration has cut 875 of them as part of its broader effort to slash the number of federal employees. This move could especially harm former coal miners – who often suffer from lung disease – as NIOSH has helped them find work outside the mines.
14,000: More than 14,000 American and Filipino soldiers – 9,000 from the US, 5,000 from the Philippines – are participating in a “full battle test” this year, amid mounting tensions in the South China Sea. The coordinated drill will also feature soldiers from Australia, Canada, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The exercise, which started on Monday, will run for three weeks.
$3,400: An age-gold problem: The price of gold surpassed $3,400 on Monday amid fears over the future of the global economy and concerns for the Federal Reserve’s independence. A year ago today, the price of gold was at $2,384.
$3,000: A thief swiped US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s bag while she was having dinner in Washington, DC, on Sunday night, taking her passport, makeup bag, checkbook, and $3,000 in cash. Police officers have not yet caught the thief, believed to be a white male.Human rights activists hold a placard reading 'Military is a Killer of Women' during Aksi Kamisan, or Thursday's Protest, in front of the Merdeka Palace in Jakarta, Indonesia, on March 20, 2025.
Indonesian activists are protesting a new law allowing active-duty military members to serve an expanded role in the civilian government — a move they warn could bring back the days of military repression under strongman leader Suharto.
Indonesia’s current president, Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo, is a former general who served as minister of defense under former President Joko Widodo. He is accused of serious human rights abuses, including participation in massacres in East Timor and forced disappearances of pro-democracy activists.
In power since October, Prabowo has already worked to integrate the military deeper into governance. Amendments to the 2004 Law on the Indonesian Armed Forces, which parliament passed unanimously on Thursday, allow active duty military officers to hold positions in 14 different government institutions. Previously, they were only allowed to serve in institutions related to defense and national security, but now they’ll be able to serve in institutions like the attorney general’s office and the Supreme Court.
Prabowo’s election last year raised concerns about democratic backsliding in the country. But Indonesians have responded to the latest move: Hundreds went to the parliament building on Thursday to protest the new legislation and to demand that the military and civilian government remain separate.
Filipino activists hold candles during a protest vigil supporting former President Rodrigo Duterte's arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, March 11, 2025.
Philippine authorities on Tuesday arrested former President Rodrigo Duterte in Manila on an International Criminal Court warrant for alleged crimes against humanity linked to his deadly drug crackdown. He was reportedly put on a plane headed for The Hague within hours of being detained.
Duterte’s drug war started during his 22-year reign as the mayor of Davao and ramped up after he became president in 2016. An estimated 30,000 Filipinos were killed by police throughout that period, which led the ICC to start looking into the killings back in 2018. Shortly after the court’s probe got underway, Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC.
This has led to questions about the ICC’s jurisdiction. But Rutgers Law professor Adil Haque says “the court retains jurisdiction over crimes committed before the Philippines’ withdrawal in 2019.”
It is less clear, however, whether Philippine law allows him to be extradited to The Hague. And the former president still has lots of support back home, says International Crisis Group’s Georgi Englebrecht. “As of now, there are several rallies in cities in Mindanao — Davao, Cotabato, Iligan, Cagayan de Oro as well as online outcry about the decision. I think we can expect more rallies,” he said.
Will there be much political fallout? Experts do not believe serious upheaval is likely or that the arrest will have much impact on the midterm elections in May.
But one thing is clear: The massive rift between the country’s political dynasties, the Marcos and Duterte families, is alive and well.
Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown, seen here at the White House in Washington, in 2023.
The Cook Islands’ recent entry into a strategic partnership with China has spawned protests in front of Parliament, angered long-time ally New Zealand, and this week, nearly toppled the islands’ government.
On Wednesday, Cooks Prime Minister Mark Brown survived a 13-9 no-confidence vote. Opposition legislators were angry that Brown did the deal with Beijing in secret, jeopardizing the country’s long-standing relationship with Wellington, which New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peterssaid will now have to be “reset.” Brown’s partnership with China also follows an unsuccessful pitch last December to create a Cooks passport and citizenship, which also did not sit well with both Kiwis and islanders.
What is the Cooks’ connection with NZ? The Cooks became partially independent in 1965, but its 15,000 residents receive NZ citizenship and passports and use the NZ dollar. New Zealand has also committed over US$57 million in aid since 2022 and supports both foreign affairs and defense.
What did China offer? Beijing pledged a five-year “action plan,” including $4 million for education, the economy, infrastructure, fisheries, disaster management, and, most controversially, seabed mining for nodules rich in nickel and cobalt.
China’s larger agenda The Cooks are just the latest South Pacific nation to sign a deal with Beijing. Kiribati has signed a series of development agreements in recent years, even hosting Chinese police stations, as have the Solomon Islands. China has also persuaded both countries, as well as nearby Nauru, to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the mainland.Tensions between China and the West heat up amid military exercises
China's President Xi Jinping attends a meeting in Brazil in November 2024.
Just days after a Chinese naval helicopter nearly collided with a Philippine patrol plane over a contested reef, China’s military started live-fire drills in waterways near Vietnam on Monday and between Australia and New Zealand over the weekend in an “unprecedented” display of firepower.
Beijing’s democratic critics put up their own show of force. On Sunday, France held military exercises with the Philippines and vowed to deepen their defense ties. On Monday, Japan followed suit, forging a security pact with Manila.
France, which is looking to assert its status as a Pacific power through its overseas island territories across the region, is now negotiating an agreement with the Philippines to allow troops to train on each other’s land, similar to the deal Manila has with the US and Australia.
At a meeting in Manila on Monday, Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and his Philippine counterpart, Gilberto Teodoro, agreed to work together to counter “unilateral attempts by China and other countries to change the international order and the narrative.”
After Vietnam released new maps marking what Hanoi considers its maritime boundary with Beijing, China on Monday began four days of live-fire military exercises in the Gulf of Tonkin. Vietnam has yet to respond.
Last week, Australia and New Zealand accused China of failing to announce the live-fire component of its military drills in international waters in the Tasman Sea. The abrupt shift in protocol forced commercial airlines to reroute flights last Friday morning. On Sunday, China’s Defense Ministry denied what it called “unreasonable accusations” from Canberra and Wellington.
It’s just the latest tensions between Australia and its largest trading partner. Earlier this month, a Chinese J-16 fighter plane released flares that passed within 100 feet of an Australian P-8 Poseidon surveillance jet flying over the South China Sea.
Where does it all go? Beijing has been trying to seize on the Trump administration’s cuts to international aid and America-first foreign policy to tighten its grip over the Pacific. But China’s early success at promoting economic and diplomatic relations are overshadowed by its “beefs” with most of its neighbors over sovereignty and national security, said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.
“China can’t make friends with anybody,” Chan said. “If you zoom out and look at the South China Sea, China basically has a border dispute with almost every country in the Indo-Pacific. That puts a limit on Beijing’s ability to leverage Trump 2.0.”