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An American flag flutters over a ship and shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro California, U.S., May 13, 2025.
Donald Trump’s supporters like to tout his 1987 book, The Art of the Deal, when they discuss his trade gamesmanship, but, a month after “Liberation Day,” it is getting harder for them to convince skeptical Americans that he is winning more than they are losing.
On Monday, the White House announced a breakthrough in trade talks with China, but experts note that American negotiators appear to have won few concessions after a month of damaging uncertainty for US business. The on-again-off-again tariffs have rattled small business owners and stoked fears of a recession.
The announcement of a partial reprieve — there is still a 30% tariff on most imports from China — was greeted as good news by shippers, who had shifted cargo vessels to other routes, but uncertainty around the future of the relationship remains high, which discourages investment.
The editorialists at the Wall Street Journal think Trump may have learned that his capacity to play chicken with China is not as strong as he thought it was, which may weaken the internal faction of China hawks led by Peter Navarro, senior counselor for trade and manufacturing.
The remaining tariffs still give Trump leverage over other leaders, since many countries want to keep selling into the American market, but opinion polling shows that voters are skeptical and fear Trump’s tariff policy will stoke inflation. Since the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t have to worry about midterm elections, and the US president does, they seem to have decided they can outwait him, which may limit how far he can push his luck.
On Ian Bremmer’s World in 60 Seconds: Ian dives into the Brazil-China relationship, India and Pakistan ceasefire, and Trump’s Gulf States tour.
Ian Bremmer's takeaways:
- On Brazil-China ties: “As the Chinese de-risk away from the United States, that is a significant benefit to Brazil.”
- On India-Pakistan tensions,: “The ceasefire will hold—for now—but the region is more dangerous than it was a few weeks ago.”
- On Trump’s Middle East visit: “He (Trump) wants this to be the most successful foreign trip he’s had as president.”
Lots of headline announcements from Trump himself, and the biggest one in terms of the markets is not necessarily something you'd call a success. It's more a backtrack, but a useful backtrack nonetheless and one that we're all glad to see. Trump, of course, kicked off this global trade war with pretty much everyone, but especially with the Chinese, where he was essentially talking about a decoupling between the two largest economies in the world, raising tariffs against China to 145%, meaning nobody's going to buy any goods from China. Chinese doing the same against the Americans, raising up to 125%.
China was not going to pick up the phone to call Trump, and he was surprised that they hit back. He thought that this was going to lead to a negotiation and much more careful caution from the Chinese. As you saw from a lot of American allies around the world, not the case. And so, not only did he get his own administration to respond and talk with the Chinese and say, "We'd like to engage in person." But also sent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer, US Trade Rep, by far the most capable on the trade side that are senior and report to Trump.
And after a couple of days of meetings in Geneva, we've got 90 days off, and we have 125% off the American tariffs. So, we're at, what? 30% or 115% off, or 30% for the Americans, 10% for the Chinese. In other words, trade can happen again. And a joint statement from the US and Chinese governments, which is very rare under any government, frankly, with China, certainly with an adversary, to show that there is no daylight on the desire to pull back against decoupling, and also to engage directly between the two countries over the coming months to try to ensure that these trade gets to a mutually more respectful place.
Now, what's interesting is Trump had been trying to push so many allies around the world to align with the US on decoupling from China as part of the trade negotiations, that obviously, that piece of the negotiations isn't going to move anywhere. Japan pushed back, most countries aren't interested, certainly not the Europeans. Now, it's not really going to be credible, and I think Trump will quietly drop it, and the markets of course shoot up as a consequence of that.
So, two steps forward, two steps back. We're kind of where we were before Liberation Day on US-China. Yes, there are some additional sectoral tariffs, and this is going to be costly. But on the bilateral relationship, frankly, not an enormous amount has actually changed. Okay, so that's not a win.
What do I mean that he's had successful time on the global stage? Well, internationally, there've been a bunch of wins. India, Pakistan, significant escalation on the back of this Kashmiri terrorist incident, with lots of Indians getting killed, Indian civilians. The Indians respond by hitting Pakistani terrorist targets, according to India, but in civilian locations, so they don't mind that Pakistani civilians are getting killed. Then Pakistan responded, then India responded, and the Americans stepped in and facilitated a ceasefire.
Marco Rubio probably his single win on the global stage that we've seen so far, helps him with Trump. He also announced there would be trilateral engagement going forward between the countries. That's not going to happen. But we are, I would say again, at the status quo ante on Pakistan, India at this time, the Americans facilitated.
The Houthis had been threatening US and other shipping through the Red Sea. The Americans decided to blow up lots of Houthis military leadership capabilities. That was the Signal Gate leak that came out. And a few weeks after that, the Houthis said, "Okay, we won't attack the shipping lanes anymore, as long as you stop attacking us." That's a win for the United States. It was facilitated by Iran, who's engaged in direct bilateral negotiations with the United States right now, and Iran in a much worse position geopolitically, the Gulf states would love to see that happening. They're hosting Trump this week. That's likely to progress significantly. Maybe even Trump will meet with high-level Iranians. We'll see if we get a surprise there. But nonetheless, that's all in a much better position than it was before. And so too relations between the Gulf States and the US. Saudi US bilateral relations, including a willingness to allow for nuclear energy and development in Saudi Arabia.
Lots of new investments that are going to be announced with all three stops. Yes, there's this unfortunate announcement of a gift that shouldn't be accepted from Qatar of a 747. And then that's going to wrap up the first trip that Trump makes internationally, as well as the release of the sole remaining US hostage in Gaza. And that had been driven by the Israelis together with the US and the US angry with Netanyahu, who's continuing to engage in a war and taking over lots of territory in Gaza and not allowing humanitarian aid in. The Americans deciding they were going to negotiate directly for themselves, and with success before that trip.
So, all of those things, announcements that are frankly welcome. And the one big conflict where we're not seeing progress is Russia, Ukraine. It is plausible that there will be a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky on Thursday. Zelensky is calling for it, the Europeans, the Americans are calling for it directly. Let's see if Putin actually shows up, or if he says, "I want to do a lower level meeting to start." Either way, it looks very unlikely that he's going to actually accept a ceasefire on terms that would be remotely acceptable by the Ukrainians, the Europeans, or even the United States, which means not much progress there.
But at least Trump not willing to do a deal with Putin absent a ceasefire, which means the Americans, the Europeans, and even the Ukrainians are more aligned today than they were a week ago, two weeks ago. Certainly during that shambolic Zelensky visit to the Oval just a few weeks back. So, good news over the weekend, and some good news coming this week. And I'm personally delighted to be able to report some things that are positive about what's happening in Trump administration, as opposed to things that are breaking and things that are falling apart. Let's hope that continues. I'll talk to you all real soon.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer address the media after trade talks with China in Geneva, Switzerland, on May 11, 2025.
Mother’s Day is a time to build bridges, apparently, as the United States and China both agreed to slash tariffs by 115 percentage points each for 90 days following talks in Geneva over the weekend. US tariffs on Chinese imports will plunge from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will sink from 125% to 10%.
What’s spurring a settlement? Both countries’ economies havetaken a hit ever since the two countries started a trade war around a month ago.
Will businesses buy the truce? At the height of the US-China trade war last month, Apple said they will shift iPhone production to India. We’ll be watching to see if there’s any plans to reverse course.
Bloodbath or breakthrough? Ukraine demands truce before talks
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are tentatively scheduled for May 15 in Istanbul, where Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky says he’ll be waiting to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But Kyiv insists that an unconditional 30-day ceasefire take effect as of Monday – a condition Moscow has so far rejected.
What’s the White House view? US President Donald Trumpcalled on Ukraine to accept Russia’s offer to meet regardless of a truce, “to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH.”
But does Russia really want peace? Iran is reportedly preparing to send Fath-360 missile launchers to Moscow, though Tehran denies this. If true, it casts doubt on Moscow's commitment to ending the conflict.
Speaking of the Middle East, Hamas said it would freeEdan Alexander, the last living American hostage, ahead of Trump’s visit to the region this week. It’s unclear what Hamas is getting in return.
Doubts loom over Kashmir truce
India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire in Kashmir on Saturday after the worst fighting in the disputed region in over two decades. The US claimed to have brokered the deal; however, India downplayed its role while Pakistan lauded Washington’s involvement.
But can it hold? The current truce is fragile: leaders from each side said they were keeping the peace, yet explosions were reported in the area. There may be peace for now, but all parties have their work cut out to maintain it.
A cargo ship is loading and unloading foreign trade containers at Qingdao Port in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China on May 7, 2025.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with their Chinese counterparts in Geneva on Saturday in a bid to ease escalating trade tensions that have led to punishing tariffs of up to 145%. Ahead of the meetings, Trump said that he expects tariffs to come down.
The urgency of the meeting — coming just weeks after reciprocal tariffs took effect in April — suggests the Trump administration is eager to de-escalate as economic costs mount. China is scoping out whether Washington is really ready to negotiate, and is framing the talks as US-initiated so they can engage without appearing to be yielding to US pressure.
Trade impacts are already visible. Data from Beijing released Friday showed that China’s exports to the United States plunged 21% in April, compared to the same period last year. China also saw factory output shrink in April and is racing to secure new markets. Meanwhile American retailers warn of holiday shortages and rising prices.
Each side comes to the table with firm goals. Washington wants to shrink China’s trade surplus and curb practices it sees as unfair, including industrial subsidies, tech restrictions, and IP theft. Beijing also wants tariffs reduced — but not at the expense of overhauling its economic model.
This weekend’s discussion is expected to be exploratory, not revolutionary. Progress, Eurasia Group China expert Lauren Gloudeman says, would be if “the meeting yields any plans to meet again.”
A carnival float by artist Jacques Tilly depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, at the traditional "Rosenmontag" Rose Monday carnival parade in Duesseldorf, Germany, March 3, 2025.
Chinese President Xi Jinpingarrived in Moscow on Wednesday for a four-day trip in which he’ll attend the Kremlin’s World War Two victory celebrations and aim to bolster his “no limits friendship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia-China ties have deepened significantly in recent years, as both leaders prefer a multipolar world to a US-dominated one, and they share an affection for authoritarian politics. They also enjoy a natural symbiosis: Russia sells natural resources, while China buys them. And since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has helped Putin to survive Western sanctions, supplying Moscow with banned technology and arms while buying Russian oil.
But the return of US President Donald Trump – who has upended global trade and sympathized with Russia’s views on Ukraine – makes things interesting.
Beijing, which has clashed with the European Union over trade and technology in recent years, is now keen to exploit European misgivings about Trump to repair its own ties with Brussels. But standing next to Putin, whom most European leaders see as an arch villain for his invasion of Ukraine, will make that harder.
Meanwhile, Putin has a balancing act of his own to consider. Trump offers the prospect of a major improvement in US-Russia relations, which could help Moscow financially. But the White House is also trying to isolate China economically, something Putin couldn’t possibly go along with right now. Is there a way to square that circle? Would he even want to try?
Shipping containers from China are seen at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro, California, U.S., May 1, 2025.
With US-China trade grinding to a halt, President Donald Trump told ABC News on Sunday that he would lower the 145% tariff imposed on China “at some point,” explaining that “otherwise you could never do business with them.” Beijing has expressed willingness to start talks if Washington is “prepared to … cancel its unilateral tariffs.” So China is playing a game of chicken, and Trump hasn’t quite swerved out of the way.
“There’s no clarity around what Trump wants from China,” says Eurasia Group’s Lauren Gloudeman. “It’s been a huge source of frustration for the Chinese side because since November they have been seeking to get that question answered.”
Beijing isn’t playing ball like Canada or Mexico, which made superficial concessions to Trump to postpone tariffs. China retaliated with 125% tariffs of its own and then moved to protect vulnerable parts of its economy by quietly issuing a series of exemptions on important US imports like aircraft engines, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
“China’s leadership cannot be seen as being coerced into giving in to Trump’s tactics,” says Gloudeman, explaining that Beijing is already facing the worst-case scenario for bilateral trade. “It’s quite insulting and humiliating, and the broader strategy for China is counting on Trump to back down first.”