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Politics
But it has reduced cause for panic, in part because Trump stated a commitment of the United States to the basic alliance, to the security umbrella, to defending Canada as necessary, which was something he wasn't saying over the past few months with Justin Trudeau. He clearly likes Carney more than Trudeau, which is not surprising because that bar is pretty much on the floor. And also stopped with the governor speak, which is clearly disrespectful, but did push on the 51st state issue, and how much better it would be for Canada if they were actually a part of the United States, not that he intends to take it over militarily, but rather something he's going to keep talking about.
And Carney didn't interrupt Trump when he was going on and on, talking about that, but then responded with his best line of the conversation, which is, "I've spent the last couple months going around talking to the owners of Canada, meaning the voters, the citizens of Canada, and it's never, never, never going to happen." Trump says, "Never say never," and they kind of agree to disagree on something they shouldn't be talking about to begin with. But at the end of the day, not much there. The bigger problem, of course, is that there is an incredibly important trade relationship between the US and Canada. And no, it is not true that the US doesn't do much business with Canada. In fact, Canada actually buys more from the United States than any other individual country in the world does. And if you go talk to the governors, the senators, the representatives of all of the northern states that border Canada, they can tell you just how integrated those supply chains are, how essential the Canadian economy is for them.
And some of those are blue states, some of those are red states, and it don't really matter, they all care a lot about their relationship with Canada. So, it is important. But because Trump is individually taking the right to tariff from Congress, where it legally sits, and using legally contestable national emergency clauses to enforce tariffs, impose tariffs on other countries, including those that are governed by pre-existing trade relationships, like Canada, which has a robust USMCA, US-Mexico-Canada agreement, that Trump himself helped drive, negotiate, and trumpeted as a huge win at the time, but now he is singularly undermining it. And what that means is that we are very unlikely to get to a new agreed USMCA in the coming year, despite the utility of renegotiating it with the sunset clause, and instead... look, I don't think anyone's going to run away from it, I don't think it's going to break, instead, it means that every year we're going to kick it down the road and renegotiate so that you can keep it going.
And that means that the Canadians don't feel like they have a functional multilateral trade arrangement with the US and Mexico, that also means, because the US president can change it at any moment he wishes, and also that an enormous amount of time is going to be spent in those negotiations, not just now, but every year, creating more uncertainty for those that need to want to rely on the long-term stability of that trade relationship. And here is the rub, which is that the US-Canada relationship will stay important, it'll stay robust, but it will become more transactional, where it had been built on trust and shared values, and that means the Canadians will work really hard to hedge and de-risk their relations from their most important trading partner.
About 75% of Canadian trade is with the United States right now, they rely much more on the US than the Americans rely on Canada, Trump is absolutely right about that, but they now see that as a vulnerability. And for the last 40 years, the Canadians, really since '88, '89, the Canadians have focused singularly on increasing their interdependence with the United States. They built out all of this infrastructure from the provinces, not east-west, but rather north-south. If you look at the way that rail transit, and energy infrastructure, and supply chains work in Canada, it's as if these provinces were independent republics set up to do business just with the United States, not focused on what would make sense for an independent sovereign Canada over the long term, if that relationship suddenly were ruptured.
Well, that needs to change, and that's something that you're going to see the Canadians work very strongly on over the coming years. Easier for Carney to do, because his relationships internationally are much stronger than previous Canadian prime ministers, certainly generationally, if you think about the fact that he was Central Bank governor in the UK, and that one of his best international relationships is actually with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and others and others, I think you're going to see a very strong effort to work with the UK, to work with the Commonwealth, to work with the EU, and to help shift those trade flows over time to hedge further away from the US.
And the costs of that will be significant, the impact of the trade rupture in the near term will be a major recession in Canada imminently, and a mild recession in the United States imminently as well, but over the long term, my view is no one benefits from that.
So, that's the main takeaway, a little less theatric maybe than the internet, apologies for that, but it is the way I see it, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
How do you believe that the Trump presidency will influence elections in Europe?
Well, of course we don't know. But what we've seen during the last week with important elections in Canada and Australia, not Europe, but fairly similar in other ways, is that the Trump factor has been very important. It has boosted the incumbent governments. It has boosted the center-left. It has boosted those who are seen as standing up to American pressure, and thus produced results both in Canada, primarily in Canada, but also in Australia. Very different from what practically everyone expected a couple of months ago.
Europe, different place. But still we have two important elections coming up, within slightly more than 10 days. We have the first round of the presidential election in Poland. That's very important for the future possibilities of the Tusk government to continue reforming that particular country. And we have the second round of the presidential election in Romania. An important country often forgotten. But there of course, we had gross interference from Russia and TikTok, and a candidate was banned. In both of these cases, we see the Trump presidency acting. They received, in the White House the other day, the opposition candidate. The extreme right nationalist opposition candidate the other day. And they've been making distinct noises in favor of the same political alternative in Romania. Will this backfire in the way it did in Canada, Australia? Remains to be seen. Very important elections both of them. Watch this space.
Nuns walk at St. Peter's Square, ahead of the conclave, at the Vatican, on May 6, 2025.
26: The conclave of 133 cardinals will gather in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel on Wednesday to begin the process of electing a new pope via secret ballot. To win the job with a puff of white smoke, a candidate must garner the support of two thirds of the conclave, plus one. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, a veteran Vatican diplomat, is the favorite, per Polymarket, which gave him a 26% chance of winning.
182: Some 182 days on from the 2024 election, and North Carolina has still yet to certify state Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs’ reelection victory. The Tar Heel State did move one step closer to affirming the result on Tuesday, though, after a federal judge narrowed the number of votes that were under dispute. Last November, Riggs, a Democrat, defeated Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin by 734 votes out of 5.5 million cast.
4: All four major airports in Moscow were ordered to shut after the Kremlin accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack on the Russian capital. There were no casualties in the reported attack, which came days before Russia holds a celebration to mark the 80th anniversary of the Red Army’s triumph over Nazi Germany.
14%: The US trade deficit jumped 14% in March, setting a new record of $140.5 billion as American consumers and businesses rushed to buy foreign goods like pharmaceuticals and computer accessories ahead of President Donald Trump’s announcement of global tariffs in early April. Some economists believe US firms were still frontloading purchases well into April.
18,500: An estimated 18,500 Sudanese have crossed the country’s western border into Chad over the last two weeks alone, per the United Nations, with many severely malnourished. Nearly 800,000 Sudanese have fled to Chad since Sudan’s civil war began two years ago. For more on why one of the world’s deadliest conflicts continues, see here.
>$1 million: Chris LaCivita, who ran Donald Trump’s successful presidential campaign last year, is reportedly earning more than $1 million to advise Albania’s former Prime Minister Sali Berisha. LaCivita is rehashing the MAGA message, only with “Albania” replacing “America.” Berisha, who faces corruption allegations, is hoping to lead the Balkan country again after the parliamentary elections on Sunday.Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz (CDU) is standing in the Bundestag election for Chancellor. CDU leader Friedrich Merz has failed the first round of voting in the Bundestag election for Chancellor.
Christian Democratic Union leader Friedrich Merz did not become Germany’s chancellor as planned on Tuesday after at least 18 members of his coalition either abstained or voted against him. His centrist coalition holds 328 out of 630 seats in the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, but he won just 310 of the 316 votes needed to confirm him as the next leader.
Merz isn’t kaput yet. The Bundestag will hold a second round of voting, possibly as soon as tomorrow, and if six of the lawmakers who withheld their support come around, Merz will take over from lame duck Olaf Scholz. That said, this is the first time since Germany reestablished democratic control after World War II that a leader has failed to win the parliament’s backing on the first round.
The culprits? Likely coalition lawmakers who disagree with Merz’s plan to take on significant debt to boost defense capacity and revitalize economic growth.
Merz’s far-right rivals pounced on him. Alternative for Germany leader Alice Weidel said the failure shows the incoming coalition’s “weak foundations” and called for fresh elections. Her party came in second place in February and some polls now show that she would win a new contest.
Looking forward: Ultimately, experts still expect Merz to prevail in becoming chancellor, but Tuesday’s stunning loss will damage his political credibility and mandate to govern. If, however, the Bundestag fails to elect a new chancellor within 14 days, Germany could be on the road to another election.
Shipping containers from China are seen at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro, California, U.S., May 1, 2025.
With US-China trade grinding to a halt, President Donald Trump told ABC News on Sunday that he would lower the 145% tariff imposed on China “at some point,” explaining that “otherwise you could never do business with them.” Beijing has expressed willingness to start talks if Washington is “prepared to … cancel its unilateral tariffs.” So China is playing a game of chicken, and Trump hasn’t quite swerved out of the way.
“There’s no clarity around what Trump wants from China,” says Eurasia Group’s Lauren Gloudeman. “It’s been a huge source of frustration for the Chinese side because since November they have been seeking to get that question answered.”
Beijing isn’t playing ball like Canada or Mexico, which made superficial concessions to Trump to postpone tariffs. China retaliated with 125% tariffs of its own and then moved to protect vulnerable parts of its economy by quietly issuing a series of exemptions on important US imports like aircraft engines, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
“China’s leadership cannot be seen as being coerced into giving in to Trump’s tactics,” says Gloudeman, explaining that Beijing is already facing the worst-case scenario for bilateral trade. “It’s quite insulting and humiliating, and the broader strategy for China is counting on Trump to back down first.”
US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris speaks alongside President Joe Biden about lowering costs for Americans at an event at Prince George's Community College in Upper Marlboro, Maryland, on August 15, 2024.
If anyone thinks the Democratic Party has a plan for combating US President Donald Trump or winning future elections, they should think again.
“The Dem messaging has been all over the place,” says Sarah Matthews, who served as deputy press secretary during Trump’s first administration but resigned after the storming of the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Last year, she endorsed former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Matthews isn’t alone in her critique of the Democrats. Several Democratic strategists who spoke to GZERO scoffed when asked if the party has a unified approach. It’s a stark contrast from eight years ago, when Democrats were united behind halting Trump’s agenda, eventually leading to a stomping victory in the 2018 House elections with a campaign centered on protecting the Affordable Care Act.
Today’s Democratic Party is devoid of leadership and strategy, with no clear plan for how to take on the president or win future elections. Gone are the days when Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), the former House speaker, publicly tussled with Trump in the White House – and won. With no clear path forward, the Dems risk further fragmentation as they desperately try to regain their footing ahead of the 2026 midterms and beyond.
Winging it
Just over 100 days into Trump’s second term, the only left-leaning party that seems united against him is based in Canada. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ defense has been disjointed. Some are focusing on the economy, others are criticizing Trump for challenging the legal authorities, while others are just echoing former President Joe Biden’s warnings about Trump’s alleged threat to democracy – as if that worked last year.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), two darlings of the American left, have toured the country in recent weeks to tout an economic-focused message aimed at wooing working-class voters. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)has zeroed in on due process by flying to El Salvador to advocate for a deported man from Maryland, while Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) is using every platform possible to argue that Trump is undermining democracy.
Some Democratic missives are even in direct conflict with one another. Matthews points to California Gov. Gavin Newsom “trying to cater a little bit to the MAGA crowd” by interviewing conservative activists on his new podcast. Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, meanwhile, are painting the president and his close allies as an oligarchy.
For Jeff Weaver, who was Sanders’ campaign manager for the senator’s 2016 presidential run, the disjointed communication is just the tip of the iceberg. He argues that Democrats have been papering over their cracks for some time, noting that they’ve hemorrhaged support from its base of working-class voters. Two-thirds of non-college-educated voters went for Trump last year, per NBC News exit polls, whereas they split their vote 12 years ago. People of color each shifted markedly toward the Republicans, too, Weaver notes. A major change in message and leadership, he says, is long overdue.
“In all likelihood, Joe Biden would not have become president in 2020 if not for COVID, the performance of ‘22 was not that overwhelming, frankly,” Weaver told GZERO. “[Democrats] fooled themselves into believing that they had a strong base of support, particularly among working-class people.”
The leadership vacuum creates an opening
The Democratic Party hasn’t had such an absence of leadership since the turn of the century and the end of Bill Clinton’s presidency. Former President Barack Obama emerged from that drought and led the country for eight years, Biden for another four. When Democrats didn’t control the White House, Pelosi – the top House Democrat for two decades – filled the void. With the former speaker no longer leading her caucus and Trump back in charge, an abundance of other Democrats – from Sanders to Newsom – have tried to carry the torch. As yet, none have emerged as the clear leader.
But Democratic pollster Zac McCrary isn’t too worried about this just yet.
“You have to let 1,000 flowers bloom,” says McCrary. “The direction of the Democratic Party is more open-ended than it has been, is more up for grabs than it has been in a generation.”
“I think it’s a good thing coming after an election where Democrats lost all three legs of the stool in terms of both chambers of Congress and the presidency,” he adds.
Party strategists agree that a party leader won’t emerge until the 2028 presidential primaries begin. In the meantime, they say, Democrats can battle test their messages – and their strategies – to see which ones land.
An easier target for Democrats will be the midterm elections, which are 18 months away. The party in power has historically performed poorly, as opposition voters are more motivated to go to the polls. The midterms are also a referendum on the president, and Trump had the lowest 100-day approval rating in 80 years. Potentially adding fuel to the fire: The US economy looks headed for recession, thanks in no small part to Trump’s widespread tariffs.
Trump’s recent own goal on trade policy and his firing-cum-reshuffle of former National Security Adviser Michael Waltz have finally given the Democrats an opening.Rep. Derek Tran (D-CA), one of the Democrats’ rare success stories in 2024 who flipped a Republican-held House seat, acknowledged that the Trump administration’s swift actions early in the term forced Democrats on defense. But now Tran believes it is time to flip the script and go on the offensive against any ineptitude by the administration.
“[Waltz] is one of the rotten apples in the barrel,” the first-term congressman said, before calling for the firing of Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth, who shared US war plans on multiple Signal chats.
“He’s putting a lot of soldiers’ lives at risk,” Tran said of Hegseth. “The incompetency in this administration has to stop.”
Some are eyeing the bigger prize
Though most Democrats – including Tran – are focused on the midterms, a handful are looking beyond 2026. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and former Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo are openly flirting with a run for the White House in 2028. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker are taking trips to states that hold early primary elections. Former Transportation Sec. Pete Buttigieg has been rampaging through podcast interviews and is heading to Iowa – where he stunned the political world by winning the 2020 caucuses – next week.
Yet these potential 2028 candidates still come from the mainstream of the party, at a time when the Democratic brand is toxic — a CNN poll in March found the party’s favorability rating was just 29%, the lowest rate since the survey began. As such, some Democratic strategists – including Matthews, the former Republican – want to see more from Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, and their message of economic populism.
“People are even underestimating AOC right now because I do think that there is an appetite for that kind of populist message,” Matthews said. “It does seem like that would be the smart move for the Democrats to lean more into that.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz speak with the media following meetings with a Ukrainian delegation on Ukraine-Russia peace talks, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on March 11, 2025.
US National Security Adviser Michael Waltz will exit his post, CBS News first reported, and will be nominated as ambassador to the United Nations. The move brings a premature end to the Floridian’s tumultuous White House stint, one that has been marred ever since he accidentally added a journalist from The Atlantic to a Signal chat discussion about US attack plans in Yemen. President Donald Trump confirmed the reshuffle on social media.
It began before Signal-gate. Waltz reportedly didn’t gel with Trump or his most senior advisers from the off. He clashed with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and his history – he advocated against Trump’s rise in 2016 – left him vulnerable to attacks from the right.
Dems on offense. Rep. Derek Tran (D-CA), who holds a swing seat covering parts of Los Angeles and Orange County, called Waltz “one of the rotten apples in the barrel.” But he didn’t stop there, calling for the ousting of Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth too.
“It’s not enough that it’s just Waltz, it has to be Hegseth as well,” he told GZERO. Hegseth was the one who shared the war plans on the Signal chat that Waltz created but has thus far escaped punishment. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have been calling for Hegseth’s head for over a month.
From one Florida man to another. In his stead, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will serve in Waltz’s role on an interim basis, adding yet another role to his portfolio. The former Florida senator entered the administration as the secretary of state, before subsuming USAID into his command in February as well as Waltz’s role now.
Whether he lasts in this trio of roles for long is another matter — the Miami native has long had presidential ambitions, which he could pursue in 2028.
Not the launchpad it used to be. Six of the first 15 US presidents had served as secretary of state before becoming commander-in-chief, but none since. Mike Pompeo, who held the position for the last two years of Trump’s first term, flirted with a run but ultimately declined when his polling mirrored that of the fictional Connor Roy in “Succession.” Rubio’s path to the presidency thus remains a challenging one.