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The Dalai Lama at the start of his 90th birthday celebrations in his exile in northern India.
What We’re Watching: Dalai Lama’s succession plans, Big Beautiful Bill in the House, Israel-Hamas ceasefire under review
Who will be the next Dalai Lama?
As the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday, he is meeting with top Buddhist figures this week to lay out succession plans that could draw a sharp response from China. The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, fled his native Tibet after a failed uprising against Chinese rule in 1959 and became the global face of a campaign for Tibetan independence. While China wants to install a successor who will accept Beijing’s control of both Tibet and Taiwan, the Dalai Lama’s latest statement emphasized his office’s “sole authority” over the selection process.
Is the US House ready to pass Trump’s signature legislation?
Following Senate passage on Wednesday, President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” has returned to the House where lawmakers are scrambling to reach the floor for a possible vote later today. If all members of the House are present — following a cancelled recess, storms in the Washington area this morning have made travel to the Capitol challenging — Republicans can afford just three “no” votes from their members. Some House Republicans already say they would vote against the bill in its current form, likely delaying eventual passage until after Trump’s July 4 deadline.
Israel and Hamas are not yet committed to Gaza ceasefire
On Tuesday, Trump posted on his Truth Social account that Israel had “agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE” in Gaza and warned Hamas that its leaders had better say yes. As of late this morning, both Israel and Hamas remain publicly uncommitted to Trump’s terms. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit the White House next week.Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA), speaking alongside Republican leadership House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), left, House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-MD), second from left, and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), right, during a press conference at the United States Capitol on Tuesday, March 11, 2025.
Will Senate back House funding fix?
On Wednesday, the House of Representatives narrowly passed a stopgap funding bill, voting 217-213 to prevent a government shutdown and keep federal spending at current levels through Sept. 30.
Following its passage, Speaker Mike Johnson adjourned the House for a week, denying the Senate the option to amend the bill before Friday’s shutdown deadline.
The bill keeps spending largely unchanged from last year but boosts military funding by $6 billion. It also cuts over $1 billion from Washington’s budget for the rest of the fiscal year, raising concerns about funding city services. On a brighter note, it increases support for a nutrition program for women and children and bolsters air traffic control funding.
The only Republican to vote against it, Rep. Thomas Massie, of Kentucky, defied pressure from Donald Trump, who threatened to “lead the charge” against him in 2026. Massie opposed the measure for not cutting spending enough — a stance shared by many fiscal conservatives in the Senate.
Will the Senate pass it? Republican senators have signaled support, with former hardliners backing it to advance Trump’s — and the Department of Government Efficiency’s — policy agenda.
Democratic leaders, however, argue that it lets the White House impose deep spending cuts through DOGE without congressional oversight. Unlike full-budget bills, temporary extensions don’t dictate how federal funds are allocated. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are floating a six-week extension to craft a broader spending deal. The question between now and the Friday deadline is whether they will stand firm and risk a shutdown — a move many swing-state Democrats fear could backfire — or push the fight to fall.
US Capitol building at in the morning sun. Washington DC, USA The US Capitol building in the early morning at sunrise.
Election Countdown: The 6 congressional races to watch
While eyes around the globe will be on the US presidency this Election Day, there are consequential races further down the ballot that will determine how much power Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will wield. A handful of Senate and House races will decide which party has the power to advance or stymie the next president’s agenda.
Going into election night, 538 forecasters give Republicans a 92% chance of winning the Senate, but experts say the House could be anyone’s game. The Senate is likely to be called on election night, but because of slow counting in California, the results in the House are unlikely to be called before the end of the week at the earliest.
Here are the key races to watch.
Senate
Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority but are facing an almost certain loss in West Virginia. That means that Republicans only need to capture one more race to win the majority. This is a pretty comfortable spot for the GOP to be in. Meanwhile, Democrats rely on dramatically outperforming in the polls or performing miracles and expanding their map by winning states like Texas or Florida.
Thirty-four seats are up for grabs, and 10 races are expected to determine the balance of power: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, Maryland, and Texas.
Arizona offers a race of political extremes. Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is stepping down, and progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego and Trump-darling Kari Lake are vying to take her spot. Lake, who lost the governor’s race in 2022 and continues to insist the election was “stolen,” has been encroaching on Gallego’s lead in the polls in recent days. Gallego’s slight edge is being attributed to his popularity among Latino voters, who make up 25% of the electorate.
Michigan, meanwhile, is a competition between centrists. Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring, and mainstream Republican Mike Rogers – a former Trump critic who has since embraced him – is facing outgoing Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is using her national security background to win over centrists in and around Detroit.
The race has been tied in the final weeks of the election, and some of the biggest issues are reproductive rights and the candidates’ support for electric vehicles – a hot topic in a state that is home to the Big Three auto manufacturers.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is fighting to keep his seat in the solidly red state against Trump-backed Bernie Moreno. Brown has lost what was once a commanding lead in recent weeks and is now polling behind Moreno by one point. The race has drawn $500 million in ad spending, more than any Senate race in history.
Control of the Senate could very well hinge on this state, which has voted twice for Trump and is likely to do so for a third time this year. Brown has held on to power in the past by focusing on local issues and evading questions about national political figures but has suffered from attack ads framing him as being far-left on transgender issues. But Democrats need this state if they have any chance of keeping their majority.
House of Representatives
Control of the House, like everything in this election, is expected to be incredibly close. All 435 seats are on the line, and, likely, whichever party wins control will do so by just a few seats. The Republicans are on the defense and need to control their slim majority, while Democrats need to gain four seats to flip the chamber. Democrat’s lead has declined as the election approached, with their margin slipping to just 0.5 points over the Republicans, down from 2.6 in early September.
New York’s 19th district is one of the most expensive House races in the 2024 election, with Democrats seeing flipping the seat as key to their efforts to regain control of the House. Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro faces a rematch against Democrat Josh Riley in this swing district that stretches across all or parts of the 11 upstate counties. It is expected to be a bellwether for how the parties are performing in the suburbs of New York and New Jersey, where Democrats saw disappointing turnout in the 2022 midterms, which led to them losing the seat.
Molinaro, once known as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, has veered to the right this cycle, with his campaign drawing on fears about immigration and crime, while Riley has focused on abortion and reproductive rights.
Virginia’s 7th district is worth watching because it is expected to be an early bellwether of how the parties are fairing in a mixed district that spans from the DC suburbs to the rural Piedmont region. Republican Derrick Anderson is currently down four points against Democrat Yevgeny “Eugene” Vindman, who led the whistleblower account of the quid-quo-pro phone call between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky that became the basis of the first impeachment case against Trump.
In Nebraska’s 2nd district, incumbent Republican Don Bacon is currently beating Democrat Tony Vargas by just two points. That's the same margin the GOP won by in 2022, and the Dems have had their eyes on winning it back ever since.
The district is one of 16 Republican-held seats in places that voted for Joe Biden in 2020. It is also known as the “blue dot” because it often sends one of Nebraska’s electoral votes to the Democrats even as the rest of the states’ votes go to Republicans.
Check out more of our recent election coverage:
- Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states
- The 15 counties to watch on election night
- The Disinformation Election: How conspiracy theories are impacting the vote
- How the 2024 presidential election could define the future of the Supreme Court
- Each presidential candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win the election. As the results come in, keep track of them with our handy map! Download it here
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North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, whom Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump has endorsed in the race to be the state's next governor, speaks before his arrival for a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, U.S., March 2, 2024.
The crucial down-ballot races to watch in the US election
When Americans head to the polls on Nov. 5, they’ll vote for more than just the next president. They’ll also decide key House, Senate, and gubernatorial races determining which party can enable or obstruct the future president’s policy agenda. Here are the races to watch.
In the Senate, Democrats are on the defensive, with Republicans only needing two new seats – or one seat plus the White House – to win control. Thirty-four seats are up for election, but the majority will likely be decided by just nine races: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, and Texas.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is fighting to keep his seat in the solidly red state against Trump-backed Bernie Moreno, who is currently up by 8 points in the polls. Republicans are also close to flipping Montana – where the Democratic incumbent is down by 16 points – and are ahead in Nebraska by 19 points. In Texas, incumbent Ted Cruz is ahead by just 5 points against Rep. Colin Allred.
Democrats are ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, but with razor-thin margins. At the most, they lead Nevada by 2 points and the rest of the states by 1 point or less.
Control of the House will likely be decided by 27 air-tight races. Here, Republicans are on the defensive but could maintain control of the chamber by winning 12 of the 27 toss-up races. Key states to watch are California, where four Republicans will defend their seats in districts that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and New York and New Jersey, where the two parties are duking it out for control of the suburbs.
There are 11 seats for governor up for grabs. In North Carolina, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is trying to maintain Democratic control of the Tar Heel State against Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who would be the state’s first Black governor if elected. New Hampshire and Washington are also holding competitive races.
While all eyes are focused on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win control of the White House, we’ll also be watching these down-ballot races to see which party wins control of the legislature for the next two years.
The U.S. Capitol dome is seen in the morning sun in Washington, U.S., March 8, 2023.
Is Congress headed for a “double flip?”
US presidential elections may overshadow Congressional contests, but which party controls the House and Senate is critical in determining what a president can and can’t do during their time in office. The presidential race is close, with just 25 days to go before Election Day, and the White House is either party’s to win.
Congress, however, may be headed for a “double flip,” with Republicans on pace to retake the Senate from Democrats but lose the House, which they currently control. If that should happen, it would be the first time in US history.
Experts say a double flip could produce extraordinary gridlock, which, in the current political environment, is saying something.
Eight close Senate races out of the 34 seats up for election this time around are set to determine who controls that chamber. In the House, the Cook Report projects 26 toss-up seats and that 16 lean seats are up for grabs, meaning 42 or fewer elections out of 435 could have an outsized effect on the next Congress – and the next White House.
House Speaker Mike Johnson
Johnson avoids government shutdown, sidesteps Trump’s demands
But Donald Trump is unlikely to thank him, as the deal came at the cost of Republicans dropping the SAVE Act, an immigration proposal that included new proof-of-citizenship requirements for voter registration. Trump has told Congress not to pass a spending plan without “every ounce” of the proposal and has yet to comment since it was dropped.
Beyond the presidential election, Johnson was also likely motivated to protect Republicans in down-ballot races in November.
The agreed-upon plan includes “only the extensions that are absolutely necessary” besides an additional $231 million to boost Secret Service protections for the candidates during the upcoming presidential election and into next year.
The deal extends government funding through Dec. 20, all but ensuring that the lame-duck period between the election and the inauguration of a new Congress is engulfed in spending disputes. Just in time for the holidays!
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) speaks during Day 2 of the Republican National Convention (RNC), at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., July 16, 2024.
US House speaker pulls bill that would avoid a government shutdown
Too clever by half, Mike. With a US government shutdown looming on Oct. 1, and the election to follow in November, US House Speaker Mike Johnson had a plan.
He proposed that a fresh six-month government funding bill be tied to a new election security measure that would require people to provide proof of citizenship in order to vote. That bill grew out of longstanding but unsubstantiated Republican concerns about non-citizens voting in sizable numbers.
Donald Trump, who’s built much of his campaign on grievances about illegal immigration, has called for a shutdown if Congress won’t pass the election security measure.
But that seems to have backfired. Democrats want Johnson to instead work on a bipartisan standalone government funding measure. A handful of GOP lawmakers are also opposed – some because the spending bill doesn’t address their deficit concerns, others because it would freeze Pentagon budgets at current levels, handcuffing defense planners.
Lacking the votes, Johnson pulled the bill ahead of a scheduled vote on Wednesday.
He plans to work on the defectors this weekend and may still go ahead with a vote next week. But with a razor-thin GOP majority, it’s a gamble, which means both parties are engaged in a game of chicken to avoid a deeply unpopular government shutdown just weeks before the election.
House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) speaks to reporters during a weekly press conference at Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on April 16, 2024.
The toughest job in America?
It’s a bit surprising that anyone wants to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives. Six months ago, Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted by fellow Republicans after he dared to cooperate with House Democrats on funding the government. His replacement, Mike Johnson, now faces a battle to retain the gavel as he attempts to navigate between Democrats and an increasingly fractured GOP with rabble-rousers like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene raising objections to foreign aid and threatening the Speaker’s job.
Facing threats from Republicans opposed to an aid package for Ukraine supported by the Biden administration, Johnson has cooked up a plan to “damn-the-torpedoes,” as Politico puts it, and go forward with the bill and two separate votes on additional aid packages: one for Israel in the wake of Iran’s attack and one for Taiwan. He also intends to pass two other bills (five in total), including one to increase border security and another that takes aim at Russia, Iran, and TikTok.
“My philosophy is you do the right thing and you let the chips fall where they may,” Johnson said about his plan to bring the bills to a vote this week. And fall they may as the MAGA crowd prepares reprisals, including meddlesome amendments or even a motion to vacate and boot Johnson from his position.
So now begins the battle between Johnson and hardliner Republicans, which in the next few days will shape not just the three bills in question and global geopolitics, but how Congress operates – or doesn’t.
The speaker struggle stands in contrast to a recent kerfuffle in Canada, where Speaker Anthony Rota resigned after his office welcomed a Ukrainian veteran who fought for the Nazis during World War II into the House of Commons. Rota was quickly replaced by Liberal member of Parliament Greg Fergus, and business in the Commons soon returned to its boisterous but mostly functional baseline.