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US enters war with Iran: What comes next?
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the US decision to formally join Israel in military strikes against Iran, marking a major escalation in the Middle East.
“The United States has formally entered the war in Iran,” Ian says, following a week of rising tensions and failed negotiations.
American forces launched targeted strikes on Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear facility and two other sites, a move Ian calls a “TikTok-style war,” quick, explosive, aimed at avoiding a long-term ground conflict, and something “Trump’s base can certainly get behind.”
Trump, who has positioned himself as a peace-focused president, “is now 0-3 on his big efforts at negotiations,” Ian notes, referencing failed talks with Russia, Israel, and now Iran.
Now the world waits to see how Iran responds. So far, the regime has shown restraint, but with its leadership weakened, deterrents degraded, and the threat of further strikes looming, retaliation is likely. Whether through proxy attacks or asymmetric escalation, Ian says Iran is now “more likely to act unhinged and less rational than what we’ve seen so far.”
A miniature statue of US President Donald Trump stands next to a model bunker-buster bomb, with the Iranian national flag in the background, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, on June 19, 2025.
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Trump gives himself, and Iran, two weeks
US President Donald Trump said Thursday that he will decide whether to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities “in the next two weeks,” a move that re-opens the door to negotiations, but also gives the US more time to position military forces for an operation (and the expected retaliation). Speaking of negotiations, European leaders were reportedly set to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva today to explore a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Meanwhile the war itself rages on: Tehran struck a hospital in Be’er Sheva in southern Israel on Thursday, while Israeli forces bombed the unfinished nuclear power plant at Arak and struck industrial targets in Northern Iran. And Tehran is now rushing to export as much oil as possible as fears grow that the war could result in closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s biggest oil customer? China.
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US President Donald Trump gestures after returning early from the G7 Leaders’ Summit in Canada, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, USA, on June 17, 2025.
Will the US play a Trump card in Iran?
As he left the G7 summit early on Monday, US President Donald Trump declared that he wants to bring a “real end” to the Israel-Iran conflict, and urged citizens of Tehran to evacuate. Washington also moved to bolster its military options in the Middle East.
What is Trump after? Speculation continues to swirl about whether the US will risk getting involved more directly in the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, or whether Trump is using Israel’s current pummeling of the Islamic Republic as leverage for a wider negotiated settlement to the nuclear issue and the Iran-Israel conflict. The president emphasized that he doesn’t seek a mere ceasefire, but rather something “much bigger.” (For more on Trump’s options, see here.)
Meanwhile in Tehran: Iran, suffering from Israel’s aerial bombardment, reportedly signaled that it wants to return to the negotiating table, but remained unwilling to make new concessions.Palestinians wounded in an Israeli strike near a humanitarian aid distribution centre are rushed to Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis.
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Iran looks to negotiate ceasefire
As the Israel-Iran war intensifies, Iran is seeking an urgent ceasefire, facing overwhelming Israeli military air superiority.
"They have virtually no capacity to strike back,” says Ian Bremmer in today’s Quick Take. Iran has reportedly expended 20% of its ballistic missiles, with minimal damage inflicted, while Israel has crippled large parts of Iran’s military infrastructure and nuclear program.
The US also looms large, as Ian says, “Trump is basically saying, ‘We’re not entering the war, but we will if you don’t engage in negotiations.’” A US-backed strike on Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant remains a real threat if talks stall.
Despite widespread global condemnation of Israeli strikes, even Iran’s allies like Russia are not stepping in militarily. “Regime survival is the priority now,” Ian warns, as internal dissent grows within Iran’s leadership. But with the risk of irrational escalation rising, Ian adds: “That’s the fog of war stuff … far more likely as this war is going on.”
Emergency personnel work at an impact site following a missile attack from Iran on Israel, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on June 16, 2025.
Iran-Israel battle escalates: What will Trump do?
The war between Israel and Iran continued to escalate over the weekend, with Israel hitting Iran’s energy facilities, while Tehran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Tel Aviv and other metropolitan areas. Dozens of Israelis have been killed, while Iran has suffered over 200 fatalities.
What’s Israel’s goal here? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme – that much we know. One outside analyst suggested he wants something bigger than this, namely regime change. US President Donald Trump reportedly vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, highlighting Netanyahu’s aggressive posture.
What about Iran? Survival of the regime and the nuclear program are the goals. Tehran has limited capacity for counterstrikes – it only had 2,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel at the start of the war, per Israeli intelligence, and has already used hundreds of them. It doesn’t want to prompt the US to get involved – which may explain why it hasn’t closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil export chokepoint.
So what will the United States do? That’s the big question. Trump urged the two adversaries to make a deal in a social media post on Sunday. The US president’s online calls for peace haven’t always been heeded, though – looking at you, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Assuming there’s no deal, the question becomes whether the US will help Israel to “finish the job” of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are buried deep underground. Most experts believe that only the US has the kind of bunker busting bombs that could penetrate deep enough to hit them.
Trump’s dilemma: He campaigned for president on a promise to end US involvement in foreign wars. Some hard-right elements of his own MAGA coalition oppose getting more involved. At the same time, a recent poll showed a slim majority of Americans, and a sizable majority of Republicans, support helping Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Trump must tread carefully: getting involved could risk a wider war, but staying on the sidelines could also spur Iran and Israel to continue escalation. Your call, Mr. President...
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GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).