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Nuns walk at St. Peter's Square, ahead of the conclave, at the Vatican, on May 6, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Betting markets swirl as conclave commences, North Carolina judicial election nears end, Moscow shuts airport due to reported drone attack, US trade deficit sets new record, Trump campaign manager tries to Make Albania Great Again
26: The conclave of 133 cardinals will gather in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel on Wednesday to begin the process of electing a new pope via secret ballot. To win the job with a puff of white smoke, a candidate must garner the support of two thirds of the conclave, plus one. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, a veteran Vatican diplomat, is the favorite, per Polymarket, which gave him a 26% chance of winning.
182: Some 182 days on from the 2024 election, and North Carolina has still yet to certify state Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs’ reelection victory. The Tar Heel State did move one step closer to affirming the result on Tuesday, though, after a federal judge narrowed the number of votes that were under dispute. Last November, Riggs, a Democrat, defeated Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin by 734 votes out of 5.5 million cast.
4: All four major airports in Moscow were ordered to shut after the Kremlin accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack on the Russian capital. There were no casualties in the reported attack, which came days before Russia holds a celebration to mark the 80th anniversary of the Red Army’s triumph over Nazi Germany.
14%: The US trade deficit jumped 14% in March, setting a new record of $140.5 billion as American consumers and businesses rushed to buy foreign goods like pharmaceuticals and computer accessories ahead of President Donald Trump’s announcement of global tariffs in early April. Some economists believe US firms were still frontloading purchases well into April.
18,500: An estimated 18,500 Sudanese have crossed the country’s western border into Chad over the last two weeks alone, per the United Nations, with many severely malnourished. Nearly 800,000 Sudanese have fled to Chad since Sudan’s civil war began two years ago. For more on why one of the world’s deadliest conflicts continues, see here.
>$1 million: Chris LaCivita, who ran Donald Trump’s successful presidential campaign last year, is reportedly earning more than $1 million to advise Albania’s former Prime Minister Sali Berisha. LaCivita is rehashing the MAGA message, only with “Albania” replacing “America.” Berisha, who faces corruption allegations, is hoping to lead the Balkan country again after the parliamentary elections on Sunday.A photovoltaic power station with a capacity of 0.8 MW covers an area of more than 3,000 square metres at the industrial site of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Kyiv region, Ukraine, on April 12, 2025.
The US-Ukraine minerals deal is finally done
Two months after their infamous White House fight, the US and Ukraine announced on Wednesday that they had finally struck a long-awaited minerals deal.
What’s in this deal? It creates a joint US-Ukraine investment fund to invest in the development of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals – which are used in electric vehicle batteries and other consumer and military technology – as well as oil and gas. Future US military support for Ukraine will be counted as part of Washington’s investment in the fund. Revenue from the natural resources extraction will be split 50/50 between the two countries. None of the proceeds of the fund will be used to reimburse the US for the roughly $120 billion in aid it has sent so far.
Will the deal help end the war? Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has argued the deal would give Washington a stake in Ukraine’s peaceful future, making it less likely that Trump would halt all US support for Ukraine’s defense against Russian invaders. Trump prides himself on his ability to cut big deals and will protect an agreement once signed. The president noted during a press event at the White House yesterday that the US presence in Ukraine “will keep a lot of bad actors out of the country.” That’s clearly what Kyiv is hoping for. The text of the deal recognizes a “free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine.
But this deal, however lucrative for the US and useful for a Ukraine desperate to keep Trump onside, doesn’t change the reality that Kyiv and Moscow’s visions for Ukraine’s future are fundamentally incompatible. That said, anything that keeps Washington invested in Ukraine’s defense will be greeted as good news in Kyiv.
One last step. Ukraine’s parliament must still ratify the framework for the deal before it becomes law.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump meet while they attend the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican on April 26, 2025.
Funeral diplomacy: World leaders push for peace in Rome
Has the pope’s funeral set the stage for peace in Ukraine? At the Vatican on Saturday, US President Donald Trump sat down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a meeting the White House described as “very productive,” and which Zelensky said had the “potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results.” Zelensky also met separately with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who later claimed that Ukraine was ready for an “unconditional ceasefire”and that it’s “now up to Russia to prove that it truly wants to end this war.”
Trump also threw the ball into Russia’s court – but it landed more like a grenade. After meeting Zelensky, the US President posted to Truth Social that he feared Russian President Vladimir Putin might have been “tapping” – aka, deceiving – him about his willingness to end the war. The evidence? Russia’s continued bombardment of Ukraine, including an attack Thursday that killed 12 people and injured 90. Trump suggested that now Putin must be “dealt with differently,” possibly through banking or secondary sanctions. At the same time, the US president claimed late Sunday that Ukraine was ready to yield Crimea – Zelensky said last week this was a nonstarter.
The response? Hours later, Russia launched a large-scale drone and airstrike assault across Ukraine, killing at least four people and injuring several others. Each country also targeted the other overnight with long-range attacks, though there were no immediate reports of casualties. Mediators are now urging the two sides to the table in what US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described as a “critical week” for resolving the conflict.
Oh and by the way. Though it had been known for some time,North Korea formally acknowledged on Sunday that it has been lending troops to the Russian cause. Separately, the Trump administration is reportedly looking to reopen talks with the North Korean regime, after Trump held a pair of talks with Kim Jong Un during his first term in office.A search and rescue operation is underway in the Sviatoshynskyi district after a massive overnight missile and drone attack by Russian troops, Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 24, 2025. At least eight people were killed in the strike, and 77 people sustained injuries.
Another setback for Russia-Ukraine peace talks
It’s all Big Smoke and no fire in London, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pulled out of Russia-Ukraine peace talks with a coalition of European leaders that were scheduled to take place in the British capital on Wednesday. The decision came right as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rebuffed the Americans’ peace plan that involved formally recognizing Crimea as Russian territory. US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who also canceled plans to be in London, is instead headed to Moscow for his fourth round of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Breaking overnight. Russia pounded Kyiv overnight with missiles and drone strikes, killing at least eight people and injuring dozens more. It was the heaviest attack on the Ukrainian capital since July. Zelensky was in South Africa when the bombs hit, but he will cut short the trip and return home early.
The Americans pile on the pressure. Rubio warned last week that the US will “move on” from peace talks if a deal wasn’t eminently “doable.” Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment on Wednesday. President Donald Trump pushed the Ukrainians to accept the peace deal on Wednesday, while claiming that Russia was on the verge of accepting it.
Would the terms be enough for Russia? It’s unclear, but Putin reportedly offered to pause fighting on Tuesday in an apparent effort to reach a peace deal. On the other hand, the Russian leader’s past comments suggest he wants more.
“Putin last year said he also expects Ukraine to give up control over the parts of the claimed regions that Russia does not yet control,” said Alex Brideau, Russia director at Eurasia Group. “It may also demand new elections, on the assumption that it would lead a government that is friendlier to Russia.”
“Whether that’s realistic,” Brideau added, “Putin appears unwilling to deviate much from these demands.”
How Ukraine feels about negotiating with Russia
What would Ukraine be willing to offer Russia to bring an end to the war? It’s a question that’s been asked over and over, but now seems closer to reality than any point since the fighting began. As the White House negotiates with the Kremlin for a ceasefire deal, would Kyiv be willing to cede territory to get Moscow to the negotiating table? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba for a sober assessment of the war—and what it will take to end it. According to Kuleba, who resigned last September amid a cabinet shuffle, Ukraine is ready to compromise, but not if it means giving away the rights to what millions of Ukrainians see as historically, legally theirs. A nation that abandons its dream, he warns, is “determined to lose.” It will also take more than concessions from Ukraine to achieve a meaningful ceasefire. According to the foreign minister, the Trump administration needs to start getting tough on Putin to make it clear to him Russia can’t win this war on its own.
“The goal of President Trump to end the war is commendable,” Kuleba explains, “The problem is that his strategy is to leverage Ukraine with sticks while leveraging Russia with carrots.”
Watch the full GZERO World episode: Will Russia agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Will Russia agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine?
President Trump has made it clear: He wants a ceasefire in Ukraine. The White House has been engaging with Russia diplomatically, while making it clear to Kyiv that ongoing US military support isn’t a guarantee. The problem? Moscow has so far shown no interest in meaningful compromise. Instead, the Kremlin is slow walking negotiations and increasing demands for concessions, all the while advancing on the battlefield and targeting Ukraine’s population centers with drone strikes. The delay tactics are testing the patience of the friendliest White House it’s faced in years. But will the Trump administration actually start piling the pressure on Russia? And even if Putin makes a deal, can Kyiv trust him to honor it? On GZERO World, Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba joins Ian Brmmer to discuss President Trump’s negotiation strategy, Russia’s goals, and Ukraine’s uncertain future.
“Did Putin come to Ukraine to take part of it or all of it?,” Kuleba explains, “If you believe Putin came after the whole of Ukraine because it is so important to him to get it under his control, then there is no ground to negotiate.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Pushing Putin for a ceasefire: Dmytro Kuleba on Ukraine's future and Russia's goals
Listen: What will it take to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? President Trump is pushing hard for a ceasefire deal, but is Vladimir Putin actually interested in negotiation? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer is joined by former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba for a sober assessment of the war with Russia—and what it will take to end it. Kuleba resigned last year amid a cabinet shuffle, but spent years at the heart of Ukraine’s diplomatic fight for survival. As long as Russia believes it can win the war, he says, Putin will never compromise on a meaningful ceasefire deal. That won’t change until the Kremlin faces serious pressure from the White House, which so far has seemed to only offer incentives to Moscow, while punishing Kyiv, according to Kuleba. So is Trump ready to get tough on Putin? And what is Ukraine prepared to offer Russia in return to bring the fighting to an end? Bremmer and Kuleba discuss Putin’s goals in the war, the Trump administration's negotiation strategy, and what it will take to finally bring peace to Ukraine.
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Will Trump pressure Putin for a Ukraine ceasefire?
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump said ending the war in Ukraine would be easy. Again and again, he promised to end the fighting within “24 hours” of taking office. But as president, and as Russia drags its feet in ceasefire negotiations, Trump has walked that confidence back. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks at President Trump’s push for a ceasefire deal in Ukraine and what it will take to bring both sides to the negotiating table. The Trump administration has been engaging diplomatically with Moscow and making it clear to Kyiv that ongoing US support isn’t a guarantee.
The problem is that so far, the Kremlin seems uninterested in meaningful compromise. Instead, it’s been slow-walking negotiations and increasing its demands for concessions, all while advancing on the battlefield and targeting Ukraine’s population centers with drone strikes. Turns out, diplomacy is a lot more complicated than a Manhattan real estate deal: complex, slow, and full of people who don’t care about self-imposed deadlines. But there are signs that the president’s patience with Moscow is wearing thin. As Russia keeps stalling, will Trump start piling the pressure on Putin to make a ceasefire happen?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.