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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks on the phone to US President Donald Trump at a car factory in the West Midlands, United Kingdom, on May 8, 2025.
US-UK trade deal a victory for Starmer, with some caveats
When President Donald Trump announced a trade deal that will reduce US tariffs on UK cars and plane engines in return for greater access to the British market for American beef and chemicals, he singled out Prime Minister Keir Starmer for praise.
“The US and UK have been working for years to try and make a deal, and it never quite got there,” said Trump. “It did with this prime minister.”
The president’s comment twisted the knife into the UK Conservative Party, which tried — and failed — to achieve a trade deal with the Americans during its 14 years in power. It took Starmer, the Labour leader, to finally clinch the deal less than a year after entering office.
Starmer isn’t the only winner. Brexiteers cited the prospect of a US trade deal to further justify exiting the European Union. The deal caps a stellar week for Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, after his party made extraordinary strides in the local UK elections last Thursday.
There’s a caveat. The scope of the deal was somewhat limited, with many goods still subject to the 10% tariff — Trump said this rate was “pretty well set.” The UK tariff rate appears to have dropped, while the US one has risen, although the White House numbers can sometimes be off.
What’s Trump’s strategy? With this deal — the first the US has made since “Liberation Day” — it’s not clear whether the president’s main goal is protectionism or winning concessions from America’s allies.
The US did nab some wins from the pact, including access to UK meat markets, but they inked it with a country with which they already have a trade surplus. Trump thus achieved both of these goals, making it unclear where his priority lies.UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade Jonathan Reynolds meets Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal for trade talks, in London, United Kingdom, on April 28, 2025.
UK, India finally cinch trade deal
The United Kingdom on Tuesday sealed its largest trade deal since leaving the European Union, inking a pact with India in a big political win for Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The highlights: drink and drive. India’s tariffs on UK whisky and gin will halve from 150% to 75%, before falling to 40% over the next decade. Levies on UK auto products will also plummet from 100% to 10%, albeit with some quotas in place. The UK, in turn, will slash tariffs on Indian clothing, foodstuffs, and jewels.
UK-India trade surpassed $50 billion last year, and the deal is projected to add $35 billion a year by 2040.
Starmer succeeds where Sunak failed. Former PM Rishi Sunak had tried desperately to clinch a deal with India during his 20-month premiership.
The migration angle. The pact exempts Indians on short-term UK visas from paying social security taxes for three years – the UK right is already mad about that.
Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group’s managing director of Europe, said the deal is “welcome news” for the UK government.
“However, the real test for Keir Starmer will be how far he can dismantle the trade friction with the UK’s biggest trading partner – the EU,” Rahman added. “That will require a bolder approach than we have seen so far.”
U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
Hard Numbers: India halves US tariffs, Columbia student sues Trump administration, FIFA president acquitted again, World’s longest-serving death row inmate acquitted
4: A federal judge on Tuesday temporarily blocked the deportation of Yunseo Chung, a 21-year-old Columbia student who took part in pro-Palestine protests earlier this month. Chung, a legal permanent resident who has lived in the US since she was seven years old, is suing the Trump administration over its attempts to deport her for allegedly obstructing the US government’s foreign policy against antisemitism. Her lawsuit also seeks to stop the “pattern and practice of targeting individuals associated with protests for Palestinian rights for immigration enforcement,” arguing it violates the First Amendment. So far, three other Columbia students have been targeted by ICE officials since Mahmoud Khalil was taken into custody in early March.
2 million: A Swiss court on Tuesday cleared Sepp Blatter, former FIFA president, and Michel Platini, ex-UEFA chief, of fraud and mismanagement charges related to $2 million in FIFA funds. This marks the second time the two have been acquitted of offenses that prosecutors allege took place in 2011.
$1.45 million: Iwao Hakamata, 89, spent almost five decades on death row – a world record – before being acquitted of murder during a retrial last year. Now, thanks to a court decision on Tuesday, he is set to receive $1.45 million in compensation, which his lawyers say is the largest payout ever awarded in a criminal case in Japan.
FILE PHOTO: Christmas decorations adorn the outside of the Royal Exchange building in London, Britain, November 26, 2024.
Hard Numbers: UK signs big free trade deal, Russian tankers go down, ABC settles with Trump, Congo peace talks collapse.
12: The UK became the 12th member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership on Saturday, signing its biggest free trade agreement since Brexit. The deal will allow the UK lower trade tariffs with Canada, Mexico, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam — but it’s a far cry from the single EU market Britain left behind.
2: A pair of Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea suffered severe damage in a heavy storm near Crimea on Sunday, with at least one ship breaking up and the other reportedly running aground. Each ship had a capacity for around 3,500 tons of oil, and streaks of petroleum floating on water are visible on video from the accident, but the severity of the spill is not clear.
15 million: ABC News agreed on Sunday to pay $15 millionto settle a defamation lawsuit with President-elect Donald Trump, over comments from anchor George Stephanopoulos regarding Trump being found liable for sexual abuse in a New York court. The money will reportedly go toward a future presidential library.
12: M23 rebels in northeastern Congo were accused of slaughtering 12 civilians during an attack on Friday, just ahead of planned peace talks between Congo and Rwanda, which allegedly backs M23. The talks collapsed, with neither side showing up in Angola, which has been attempting to mediate the conflict.Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Portugal's PM Antonio Costa during a press conference in Lisbon.
Brazil & EU tussle over war but want to talk trade
On his first European trip since taking office in January, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was hoping to win final support for a free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) that’s been stuck since 2019. So far, he’s been booed in Portugal for his controversial remarks on the war in Ukraine following a visit to China, but he doubled down on this rhetoric in Lisbon over the weekend.
Still, neither Lula's position nor the European backlash to his Ukraine balancing act is the real story here. The bigger issue is whether the EU and Mercosur will ever sign on the dotted line amid troublesome LatAm politics and Green jitters across the pond.
Lula is worried that if he waits too long to close the deal on Brazil's terms, the fast-approaching October election in Argentina could soon start to complicate things, not to mention Uruguay pursuing a separate FTA with China. For their part, France and Germany seem to have given up their reservations about Amazon deforestation during the Bolsonaro years, but environmentalists in Europe remain skeptical of Lula walking the talk.
When the Brazilian president meets Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez on Tuesday, don't be surprised if they talk more about trade than war. After all, Lula is still eager to trade more with the EU, and Spain takes over the EU presidency in July.A hostess stands before the opening of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, (FOCAC) in Dakar, Senegal.
Hard Numbers: China-Africa trade hits new high, record remittances to Central America, Barry Manilow vs protesters, Indian government vs Chinese apps
254 billion: Trade between Africa and China reached an all-time high of $254 billion in 2021, up more than a third from the previous year. But most of the increase came from a jump in Chinese exports, which continue to dwarf Africa’s exports to China.
15: To disperse ongoing demonstrations against the country’s strict covid policies, New Zealand authorities tried blaring a 15-minute loop of Barry Manilow’s greatest hits and the famously insufferable (but curiously addictive) Macarena. Undaunted, the protesters — inspired by the Canadian “Freedom Convoy” — remain outside the parliament building. PM Jacinda Ardern says the protests are “imported.”
54: The Indian government has reportedly banned at least 54 more Chinese apps, citing their threat to privacy and security. With broader economic and strategic tensions rising between the two Asian giants, Delhi has banned more than 220 Chinese apps over the past two years.
25: Remittances to Mexico and several Central American countries soared 25 percent last year, reaching historical levels as the US’ pandemic stimulus and broader economic recovery put more cash in workers’ hands. In Honduras and El Salvador, money sent back from overseas now accounts for a quarter of the economy.
How a “President Biden” could reshape US foreign policy
If the 2016 presidential election taught us anything, it's that only fools make predictions. So let's give it a go! In this episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer poses a basic question: If Joe Biden wins the presidency how would he reshape U.S. foreign policy? Anne-Marie Slaughter, who served as a top State Department official under President Obama and now runs the think tank New America, weighs in.
Biden's trade strategy
If Joe Biden is elected president next month, how will he change US trade policy? It's a question with serious pocketbook implications for Americans and all US trade partners.
Trade has become more popular in the US in recent years. In 2012, when Gallup asked Americans what "trade means for the United States," respondents were evenly divided between the options "opportunity for economic growth" and "threat to the economy." The more positive view of trade has risen each year since, and when Gallup posed the same question earlier this year, "opportunity" topped "threat" by a margin of 79-18. According to Gallup, this is a point on which Republicans and Democrats agree.
This survey did not focus only on trade in the abstract. Some 80 percent of respondents told Gallup that they consider the USMCA deal, President Trump's update on NAFTA that was finalized earlier this year, to be "good for the country."
Yet, much depends on the makeup of the next Congress and its willingness to renew the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) —which allows the president to submit a trade deal to Congress for a simple up-or-down vote without the involvement of lawmakers in the deal's details— before it expires on July 1, 2021. Many Republicans will oppose anything that gives a President Biden more power, and many Democrats will insist on a say in the labor, environmental, and climate provisions of any new deals.
So, how might a President Biden approach trade?
The central question centers on China. Though Republicans favor a tougher approach, opposition to Chinese trade practices and theft of intellectual property enjoys bipartisan support, and Biden probably wouldn't move to lower the Trump tariffs quickly or without some concessions from Beijing. That said, escalation of the trade war looks unlikely as Biden tries to put the increasingly combative US-China relationship on a more constructive path.
Biden's different approach to China would also help define US trade policy toward allies. Many European and Asian governments share Washington's frustrations with China's ability to use loopholes in World Trade Organization rules to continue its policy of "state capitalism," China's system of direct state financial and political support for both state-owned and private Chinese companies that compete with foreign firms.
As part of a broader strategy to build a more united international front against China's trade practices, Biden is likely to end President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs on Europe and to remove the threat of auto tariffs. That would offer a quick boost to Transatlantic relations.
A Biden administration would also move forward on a trade deal with post-Brexit Great Britain, but the end of TPA might delay it indefinitely. Biden is also less likely to threaten trade action against Japan, South Korea, Australia and other Pacific allies, but there are probably too many legislative obstacles for a US return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership anytime soon.
The return of Democrats to power would also mean a return to emphasis on the environmental and climate provisions of any trade deal. That's bad news for those who support a US deal with Brazil, where Jair Bolsonaro continues to enable deforestation in the Amazon.
Bottom line. There are two dominant factors that will shape the Biden trade strategy: His bid to build a more unified international front against China's state-capitalist trade practices, and the limits imposed on his negotiators if, as expected, Congress fails to extend TPA next summer.