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Nuns walk at St. Peter's Square, ahead of the conclave, at the Vatican, on May 6, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Betting markets swirl as conclave commences, North Carolina judicial election nears end, Moscow shuts airport due to reported drone attack, US trade deficit sets new record, Trump campaign manager tries to Make Albania Great Again
26: The conclave of 133 cardinals will gather in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel on Wednesday to begin the process of electing a new pope via secret ballot. To win the job with a puff of white smoke, a candidate must garner the support of two thirds of the conclave, plus one. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, a veteran Vatican diplomat, is the favorite, per Polymarket, which gave him a 26% chance of winning.
182: Some 182 days on from the 2024 election, and North Carolina has still yet to certify state Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs’ reelection victory. The Tar Heel State did move one step closer to affirming the result on Tuesday, though, after a federal judge narrowed the number of votes that were under dispute. Last November, Riggs, a Democrat, defeated Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin by 734 votes out of 5.5 million cast.
4: All four major airports in Moscow were ordered to shut after the Kremlin accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack on the Russian capital. There were no casualties in the reported attack, which came days before Russia holds a celebration to mark the 80th anniversary of the Red Army’s triumph over Nazi Germany.
14%: The US trade deficit jumped 14% in March, setting a new record of $140.5 billion as American consumers and businesses rushed to buy foreign goods like pharmaceuticals and computer accessories ahead of President Donald Trump’s announcement of global tariffs in early April. Some economists believe US firms were still frontloading purchases well into April.
18,500: An estimated 18,500 Sudanese have crossed the country’s western border into Chad over the last two weeks alone, per the United Nations, with many severely malnourished. Nearly 800,000 Sudanese have fled to Chad since Sudan’s civil war began two years ago. For more on why one of the world’s deadliest conflicts continues, see here.
>$1 million: Chris LaCivita, who ran Donald Trump’s successful presidential campaign last year, is reportedly earning more than $1 million to advise Albania’s former Prime Minister Sali Berisha. LaCivita is rehashing the MAGA message, only with “Albania” replacing “America.” Berisha, who faces corruption allegations, is hoping to lead the Balkan country again after the parliamentary elections on Sunday.Displaced people ride an animal-drawn cart after Rapid Support Forces attacks on Zamzam displacement camp, in the town of Tawila, North Darfur, Sudan, on April 15, 2025.
UN’s highest court dismisses Sudan’s claims of Emirati role in Darfur genocide
The International Court of Justice on Monday rejected Sudan’s claims that the United Arab Emirates had violated the Genocide Conventions by allegedly supplying arms to the Rapid Support Forces, a rebel paramilitary group involved in ethnic violence in Darfur.
What’s happening in Darfur? A vicious civil war, one that reached the two-year mark last month, has ripped Sudan to shreds. Darfur has seen the worst of the war, with the RSF allegedly committing genocide there. This latest ethnic-cleansing effort is separate from the one that took place in the region between 2003 and 2005, but RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, nicknamed “Hemeti,” has been involved in both.
As for the legal case. The Sudanese government claimed that the UAE helped supply weapons to the RSF in Darfur, but the court rejected this. Some UN experts and US lawmakers believe there is evidence, though, that the Emirati nation has played a role.
Nowhere is safe. Sudan’s civil war keeps chugging along. The RSF launched strikes on a military airport near Port Sudan on Sunday, according to the Sudanese army. The rebel group didn’t confirm the attack. Prior to the strikes, Port Sudan had been considered one of the safest places in the country.
What’s next? A slew of world leaders gathered in London three weeks ago to discuss the war and renew calls for peace, yet there continues to be a stalemate as each side trades blows. The government army seized control of the capital Khartoum in late March, but the RSF snatched Al Nahud, a strategic town in west Sudan, last week. In retrospect, the calls for peace in the UK capital were in hope rather than expectation. The question now is whether either side can gain enough ground to force negotiations — or whether the international community will apply pressure to bring them to the table.Burkina Faso’s junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traore attends the first ordinary summit of heads of state and governments of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in Niamey, Niger, on July 6, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Burkina Faso foils coup effort, Trump dents democracy rating, Spain to hit defense-spending target, Musk to reduce his DOGE hours, Migrants arrested while fleeing US, Japan rids foreign debt, Tourists killed in Kashmir
40%: Burkina Faso’s ruling military recently foiled an attempted coup aimed at removing junta leader Cap. Ibrahim Traoré, the country’s security minister said on Monday. The Sahel nation has had to deal with widespread insurgency in recent years, with rebel jihadist groups reportedly controlling around 40% of the country’s land mass.
55: US President Donald Trump made a dent in American democracy almost as soon as he won the 2024 election, according to a survey of 520 political experts. The Bright Line Watch benchmark gave US democracy a rating of 55 in February, down 12 points from where it was on the day of Trump’s election victory and 14 points from where it was in October 2024. It’s the country’s fastest drop since the survey began in 2017.
2%: Our globally minded readers will immediately recognize this figure as the proportion of gross domestic product that NATO member nations are encouraged to spend on defense. Under pressure from the Trump administration and its European allies to expand its military, Spain said Tuesday that it will finally hit that figure again this year, after falling short for over 30 years.
130: Elon Musk is DOGE-ing himself. The Tesla CEO says he will cut back his role in the government after his electric vehicle company reported a massive profit drop. Musk says he will spend just one to two days each week on DOGE following accusations that he has let his focus on Tesla slip. Regardless, temporary government employees like Musk are normally limited to working 130 days a year, which would expire at the end of May.
8: So much for the Great Escape: From January through April, US authorities arrested eight undocumented Dominican migrants in Puerto Rico who were trying to return to their home country. The arrests raise questions over the Trump administration’s stated goal of encouraging undocumented migrants to leave of their own accord.
$20 billion: Trump’s tariffs have Tokyo in a selling mood. Japanese investors said sayonara to more than $20 billion of foreign debt early this month. The selloff shows how Wall Street jitters can ripple across the Pacific. It’s not clear which foreign debt Japanese investors unloaded, though they are the largest holders of US Treasuries of any country worldwide, so their investment choices are observed hawkishly.
26: Outrage is rising after gunmen killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir’s Pahalgam on Tuesday. Several other victims remain critically injured. The Resistance Front – believed to be an offshoot of Pakistan-based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba – has claimed responsibility.
A displaced Sudanese woman looks on as she sits next children at “Abdallah Nagi” shelter camp, which houses people mostly displaced from the capital Khartoum, in Port Sudan, Sudan, on April 15, 2025.
Sudan’s forgotten Civil War reaches grim milestone
While the world is flooded with bad news, nowhere is it worse than Sudan, where the civil war hit the two-year mark on Tuesday.
Due to the fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, 13 million people have been displaced, over 150,000 are dead, a genocide is reportedly unfolding in Darfur, and reports of famine and rape being used as a weapon are widespread throughout the country.
While SAF regained control of the capital Khartoum last month, the RSF is brutally consolidating the Darfur region in the West. In recent days, they launched a fierce offensive in el-Fasher, aiming to capture the last remaining state capital in Darfur still under SAF’s control by setting ablaze refugee camps that are home to half a million people.
Desperation times. The war pits two leaders of the 2021 Sudanese coup — SAF Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo — against each other. Each has foreign backers keeping them stocked with weapons, but neither appears ready to lay down arms. Nevertheless, the UK hosted ministers from 20 countries in London on Tuesday in an attempt to restart peace talks.
The critical question: With global attention on the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, diplomatic engagement with Sudan has fallen by the wayside. What would it take for the world to respond to the Sahel state with the urgency it demands?Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan gestures to soldiers inside the presidential palace after the Sudanese army said it had taken control of the building in the capital Khartoum, Sudan, on March 26, 2025.
Khartoum falls to the Sudanese Army, but war rages on
The Sudanese Army says it has captured full control of Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group it has been battling in a brutal civil war for over two years. The army has seized key locations, including the presidential palace and the airport.
Regaining control of the capital marks a major triumph for the army and could provide a strategic advantage in the ongoing conflict.
Since the war began in April 2023, the RSF had held most of Khartoum but has steadily lost ground to the Sudanese Armed Forces in recent months. A military spokesperson confirmed that the army has now secured Manshiya Bridge — the last bridge previously under RSF control — as well as a military camp in Jebel Awliya, the group’s main stronghold in southern Khartoum.
Is this the nail in the coffin for the RSF? Not quite. The war is far from over. Although the RSF is retreating from Khartoum, it still maintains control over nearly all of the Darfur region in western Sudan. Meanwhile, foreign powers continue to supply both sides with weapons, fueling the conflict, while international efforts to broker peace have failed.
Sudan Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan arrives to offer condolences to the families of an officer and a journalist, who were killed during a battle with Rapid Support Forces at the presidential palace in Khartoum, Sudan, on March 21, 2025.
Could the Sudan crisis tip South Sudan into civil war?
But while Sudan’s government makes gains, the coalition government in South Sudan has been destabilized following last week’s collapse of a peace deal between the main parties of President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. On Thursday, Kiir dismissed the governor of Upper Nile state – a member of Machar’s party - where government forces are now battling the Nuer White Army militia, whom they accuse of being aligned with Machar, a charge he denies.
South Sudan has been hampered by political instability and violence since becoming independent in 2011. It is also likely that the SAF and RSF are supporting opposing sides in the current conflict. The rivalry between Kiir and Machar has further been compounded by a mass exodus of over 800,000 refugees last year into South Sudan, straining the country’s limited resources.
What could be next? While the SAF has made gains in Khartoum, the RSF maintains its stronghold in regions like Darfur, leading to concerns of a de facto partition of Sudan. In South Sudan, the deteriorating relationship between Kiir and Machar threatens to plunge the nation back into full-scale civil war, leading Western nations to close their embassies amid fears of escalating violence.
Representatives of political and military groups in Sudan take part in a meeting to form a counter-government in the areas occupied by the Rapid Support Forces militia.
Sudan’s RSF declares ‘Government of Peace,’ but war continues
After nearly two years of armed conflict, Sudan’s rebel Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, signed a charter with allied groups on Saturday to establish a “government of peace and unity” in territories now under their control. The signing took place behind closed doors in Nairobi, Kenya, prompting Sudan torecall its ambassador and accuse Kenyan President William Ruto of “encouraging a conspiracy” that could permanently partition the country, along the lines of Libya and Yemen.
Who’s in on the deal? In addition to the RSF, signatoriesincludeAbdelaziz al-Hilu, leader of a faction of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, which controls much of South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, and Abdel Rahim Daglo, deputy and brother of RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo.
What is next? The government's formation will reportedly be announced from inside Sudan this week, but it is unlikely to get widespread international recognition. The RSF stands accused of genocide in a war that the United Nations estimates has killed over 24,000 people and driven 14 million people from their homes. Meanwhile, the Sudanese army has intensified its military operations, recently regaining control of el-Gitaina and breaking the RSF’s siege of the key southern state capital of el-Obeid, and it may be on the verge of retaking the capital of Khartoum in the next few days.Congolese civilians who fled from Bukavu, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, following clashes between M23 rebels and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, carry their belongings as they gather at the Rusizi border crossing point to return home, in Rusizi district, Rwanda, on Feb. 17, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Rebels advance in DRC, Yuge trade corridor, Tragic flooding strikes US, UN seeks billions for Sudan, Taliban visits Japan, Plane crashes in Toronto
350,000: M23 rebels are meeting little resistance in their advance on Bukavu in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, further challenging Kinshasa’s rule. This move comes after the Rwandan-backed rebels seized control of Goma late last month and just two days after the UN warned that unrest in the country has displaced 350,000 people.
600: Israel and India are working on a free trade agreement they hope to announce as early as 2025. Israeli and Indian business leaders held over 600 meetings in New Delhi last week, on cybersecurity, smart agriculture, renewable energy, digital health, and water technologies, AI, and big data. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump continues to push for the rail and shipping corridor advocated by his predecessor, Joe Biden, to connect India to the Middle East, Europe, and the US, which he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi call “one of the greatest trade routes in all of history.”
10: Severe flooding claimed the lives of at least 10 people in the United States over the weekend, including nine in Kentucky and one in Georgia. Storms walloped Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and North Carolina, with Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear saying that nearly 1,000 people had to be rescued.
6 billion: The United Nations announced on Monday that it wants to raise $6 billion for Sudan to help alleviate one of the world’s worst hunger crises caused by nearly two years of civil war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The need, the agency says, has increased 40% from last year’s appeal.
1: While Afghanistan’s Taliban government makes regular visits to countries close to home, such as Russia, China, and parts of Central Asia, this weekend it went further afield. The Taliban sent its first-ever delegation to Japan on Sunday to seek humanitarian support and to discuss establishing diplomatic ties with Japanese leaders. One Afghan leader said that the Taliban seeks “dignified interaction with the world for a strong, united, advanced, prosperous, developed Afghanistan.” Japan’s foreign ministry has not commented yet on the visit.
18: A Delta Airlines flight from Minneapolis crash-landed at Toronto's Pearson airport on Monday, injuring at least 18 people, three critically. The plane crashed and flipped upon landing at the airport, which is located just outside Toronto. All 80 passengers and crew are accounted for, and crews are on hand to investigate what happened.